Start-up Visa Pipeline: What IRCC Data Shows About 5,176 Pending Applicants

• GenesisLink
• October 1, 2026
• Business Immigration

IRCC records show 5,176 Start-up Visa principal applicants in processing on October 1, 2025, a decision surge in 2023 to 2024 and a sharp drop in 2025. What the data supports, and what it does not.

By Sajad Bahramian, Marketing and Sales Lead, GenesisLink

IRCC records released under the Access to Information Act (file A-2025-71316) give the most detailed public picture yet of the Federal Start-up Visa pipeline. They cover permanent resident applications received and processed by quarter from 2018 to September 30, 2025, and the processing inventory as of October 1, 2025. The program is now closed to new applications (the last day to apply was June 30, 2026), so this data describes the book of business that remained to be decided, and how decisions moved through it. We read it as a practitioner reference, and we are explicit about what the tables can and cannot support.

Key Takeaways

• As of October 1, 2025, IRCC held 5,176 principal applicants in processing inventory: 2,804 pending eligibility (54.2%), 2,083 pending admissibility (40.2%), 282 pending final decision (5.4%) and 7 unpromoted.
• Principal applicant intake climbed from 302 in 2018 to 4,819 in 2024. Across 2018 to Q3 2025, IRCC received 17,783 principal applicants (56,773 persons including dependants).
• Decisions were concentrated in a short window. Q3 2023 to Q4 2024 accounts for 2,347 of the 3,260 principal applicant approvals since 2018 (72.0%).
• Decision volume fell sharply in 2025. Persons processed dropped from 1,698 in Q4 2024 to 197 in Q1 2025 (down 88.4%). For Q1 to Q3 2025, 45 principal applicants were approved and 136 refused.
• The approval rate on decisions (approved divided by approved plus refused) ran between 63.2% and 91.2% each year from 2018 to 2024, then fell to 24.9% for Q1 to Q3 2025.
• Entity-level tables name no designated organizations (names are redacted) and most small cells show as 5, so organization-by-organization comparison is not possible from this release.

In this article: what the release covers; intake from 2018 to 2025; the 2023 to 2024 decision window; the 2025 shift; the October 2025 inventory; what the redactions limit; what it means for business immigration files; FAQ.

What the Release Covers

The 50-page package contains four kinds of table for the Federal Start-up Visa:

• Permanent resident applications received and processed by calendar quarter, January 1, 2018 to September 30, 2025, split into principal applicants (PA), related dependants and total persons.
• Applications received, processed and approval rates by designated entity from 2014 to 2025.
• The processing inventory by stage, organization sub-type and designated entity as of October 1, 2025.
• Applications received by designated entity and month, April 30, 2024 to September 30, 2025, plus litigation tables for 2014 to 2025.

IRCC notes that received counts include prospective applications and that all figures are preliminary estimates subject to change. Data was refreshed on October 1, 2025. That makes this a dated snapshot. We use it for what it documents, not as a statement of where the pipeline stands today.

One reading rule matters throughout: IRCC shows small counts as 5, so printed subtotals can differ from the sum of their parts by a few units. For example, the monthly intake cells on one table sum to 546 while the printed total is 540. We quote printed totals where available and flag where we have calculated.

Intake From 2018 to 2025

Quarterly principal applicant intake began at 61 to 92 in 2018 and reached 1,287 in Q4 2024, the highest quarter in the series. Annual totals show the climb.

The approval rate column is our calculation: approved divided by approved plus refused, excluding withdrawn applications. "Processed" includes withdrawals. We checked every quarter in the source table, and approved, refused and withdrawn principal applicants sum to the processed figure in each one.

The 2025 intake figure (2,165 for three quarters) is the least reliable number in the table. IRCC flags recent received counts as including prospective applications and preliminary. Q3 2025 shows 451 principal applicants, roughly half of Q2, which is consistent with incomplete recent data and should not be read as a demand signal.

From 2018 to Q3 2025, IRCC received 17,783 principal applicants and processed 4,225 (approved, refused or withdrawn). The gap of 13,558 is not a backlog figure. Received counts include prospective applications and the processed column is a cumulative decision count, so the inventory table below is the cleaner measure of what was still pending.

The 2023 to 2024 Decision Window

Annual approvals ran between 55 and 211 principal applicants from 2018 to 2022. They moved to 940 in 2023 and 1,570 in 2024. The concentration is tighter than the annual view suggests: the six quarters from Q3 2023 to Q4 2024 account for 2,347 principal applicant approvals, or 72.0% of the 3,260 recorded since 2018. In persons, that window holds 7,941 of 10,790 approvals (73.6%).

Throughout that window, refusals stayed small against approvals. Principal applicant refusals totalled 343 over the six quarters. Refused persons did climb inside the window, from 63 in Q4 2023 to 317 in Q4 2024, even as approvals remained far larger in every quarter.

The 2025 Shift

Between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, persons processed fell 88.4% (1,698 to 197) and persons approved fell 96.1% (1,266 to 49). In each of the first three quarters of 2025, refusals in persons exceeded approvals. For principal applicants, Q1 to Q3 2025 shows 45 approved, 136 refused and 28 withdrawn.

The release does not say why. It gives no breakdown by application vintage, stage or organization type that would show which files were decided in 2025. Possible explanations include a change in which files reached final decision, a reallocation of processing capacity, or differences in file composition. The data supports none of them over the others, and advisors should avoid presenting any single cause to clients. The defensible reading is narrower: decision volume in 2025 ran at about one-tenth of its late-2024 level, and the mix of outcomes in those decisions was different.

The October 2025 Inventory

As of October 1, 2025, the inventory stood at 5,176 principal applicants.

The stage mix shows where the work sits. More than half of the inventory had not cleared the first review stage, and only 5.4% had reached final decision. The release also splits the inventory into three organization sub-type groups, with the labels redacted. In the order printed:

• Group 1: 1,477 principal applicants (28.5%), of which 535 pending eligibility, 786 pending admissibility and 156 pending final decision (10.6% at final decision).
• Group 2: 3,172 principal applicants (61.3%), of which 7 unpromoted, 1,967 pending eligibility, 1,104 pending admissibility and 94 pending final decision (3.0% at final decision).
• Group 3: 527 principal applicants (10.2%), of which 302 pending eligibility, 193 pending admissibility and 32 pending final decision (6.1% at final decision).

The groups differ in how far files had progressed. Group 1 had the largest share at final decision and Group 2 the smallest, despite holding about three in five principal applicants. Without sub-type labels, we cannot say which organization types sit behind each group.

For scale only: at the 2024 average of about 487 principal applicants processed per quarter, 5,176 corresponds to roughly 2.7 years of throughput. At the 2025 Q1 to Q3 average of about 70 per quarter, it corresponds to roughly 18 years. This illustrates how sensitive the timeline is to throughput. It is not a forecast, and neither pace is a prediction of what IRCC did after October 2025.

What the Redactions Limit

Practitioners would most like to see decision rates by designated organization. The release contains 24 pages of entity-level tables for 2014 to 2025, but entity names are withheld under section 20(1)(c) of the Act and most cells show small counts of 5 or fewer. Where numbers are visible, the dispersion is wide on tiny volumes. In the 2019 rows we read, approval rates ranged from 0% to 100% on 5 to 28 processed principal applicants per row. That spread tells us about small samples, not about organizational quality, and we do not draw conclusions from it.

The litigation tables, which cover mandamus, visa officer decisions and other administrative challenges, were close to empty in the pages we reviewed. We make no claims about court activity from this release.

The monthly intake table (April 30, 2024 to September 30, 2025) shows 540 applications received by month of the business’s earliest application. Monthly cells total 546 because of the small-count convention. Of those, 536 fall between April and December 2024, with a peak of 109 in October 2024, and January and February 2025 each show only a masked small count. This table uses a different counting basis from the quarterly table, so the two cannot be reconciled from the release.

What This Means for Business Immigration Files

As of today, the Start-up Visa Program is closed to new applications. Per the program page, applicants needed a valid 2025 commitment certificate and had to apply by June 30, 2026. The start-up work permit stopped accepting new applicants on December 19, 2025, though holders may be able to extend an existing permit while a permanent residence application is processed. Designated organizations could submit commitment certificates until December 31, 2025. The data above is therefore a record of a closing pipeline, and it matters for three groups of advisors.

• Advisors with Start-up Visa clients in process. The stage mix shows that most inventory sat at eligibility and admissibility review. Business-side documentation, such as organizational support evidence, corporate records and ownership structure, remains part of what those reviews draw on, and keeping it current is a practical task.
• Advisors planning bridge strategies. Extension of an existing start-up work permit depends on the permanent residence application remaining in process. Timelines in the data vary widely by year, so contingency planning for permit expiry is a prudent part of client calendars.
• Advisors moving clients to other pathways. C11 owner-operator permits, ICT transfers and provincial nominee entrepreneur streams all rest on a viable, documented business. Those programs have different evidentiary tests, and the shift away from the Start-up Visa raises the value of business plans and financial models built to each one.

In our partnership work with RCICs and immigration counsel, the business components of a file are where we add the most structure: viability analysis, financial modelling, corporate substance and execution evidence. Aggregate IRCC data helps frame client conversations about timing. It does not predict an individual outcome, and it does not replace the legal assessment that lawyers and RCICs provide. For related reading on how federal data reads across business categories, see our analysis of IRCC ATIP data on SUV, self-employed and C11 approval rates. For the official program status, see the Start-up Visa Program page on Canada.ca.

Limits of the Data

• The snapshot is dated October 1, 2025. It does not show the pipeline after that date.
• Received counts include prospective applications, and IRCC labels all figures preliminary and subject to change.
• Small cells appear as 5, so printed totals and component sums can differ slightly.
• Approval rates in this article are our calculation from approved and refused counts, and exclude withdrawals.
• Designated entity names and organization sub-type labels are redacted, so no entity-level conclusions are supported.
• Counts of principal applicants and counts of persons are different measures. We label which is used in each place.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many Start-up Visa applicants were in IRCC processing on October 1, 2025?

The inventory shows 5,176 principal applicants: 2,804 pending eligibility, 2,083 pending admissibility, 282 pending final decision and 7 unpromoted.

How many principal applicants did IRCC approve from 2018 to September 2025?

The quarterly table shows 3,260 principal applicants approved (10,790 persons including dependants). Of the principal applicants, 2,347 were approved between Q3 2023 and Q4 2024.

What happened to decisions in 2025?

Persons processed fell from 1,698 in Q4 2024 to 197 in Q1 2025. For Q1 to Q3 2025, 45 principal applicants were approved and 136 refused. The release does not state a reason.

Does the data show approval rates by designated organization?

No. The entity-level tables exist, but organization names are redacted and small counts are masked, so organization-level comparison is not possible.

Is the Start-up Visa still open?

No. According to the program page, applications required a valid 2025 commitment certificate and closed on June 30, 2026. The start-up work permit stopped accepting new applicants on December 19, 2025.

Can these figures predict how a specific file will be decided?

No. Aggregate figures describe populations. Outcomes depend on the facts and evidence in each file, which lawyers and RCICs assess directly.

Work With GenesisLink

GenesisLink supports immigration professionals with the business side of C11, ICT and provincial nominee files: business planning, financial modelling and documentation built to each program’s test. To see where a client business case stands, start with our assessment, or book a working session to pressure-test an active file.

Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, records released under the Access to Information Act, file A-2025-71316 (data refreshed October 1, 2025). GenesisLink provides business consulting support for immigration professionals. We do not provide immigration advice or represent clients before IRCC or provincial nominee programmes.